McCain and the economy. Great opinion piece in the NYT about McCain's complete economic ineptitude. Could it be that McCain would be as incompetent with our new American Crisis-- the economy-- as George W. Bush was with foreign policy and the "War on Terrah"?
Let us hope we don't have the opportunity to find out.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
Cui bono?
Have you read this?
If not, go check it out. It's not just a rundown of what happened to Bear Stearns. It makes you wonder-- What if it was intentional? What if Bear imploded because someone(s) wanted it to implode? Why would someone want to take down Bear?
I've been thinking a lot about the markets recently. Oil up, dollar down, inflation up, housing prices down, foreclosures up, stock market down. It seems more amplified now than ever before in my lifetime (and I remember the 70's oil shortage). It's all connected, thanks to the efficiency of computers. Think you understand how it all works? Read this then come back and tell me you still think you understand.
Most people believe that the markets are too efficient to be gamed or manipulated; that it's impossible to time it or consistently better the returns without running afoul of insider trading laws. It's all just risk and reward.
But over the last 20 years a whole class of professionals has sprung up-- investment bankers. By all accounts the sharp ones make obscene amounts of money. They're the ones who dreamed up the Collateralized Debt Objects that wrapped risky mortgages in what appeared to be low-risk, high-return investments. Nobody understands these things. Maybe not even the people who created them.
According to Bad Money, our GDP is now made up in significant part (20%) by "financial services." It's the single largest sector of the private economy. These things aren't real. You can't see them or touch them. They're just ways of packaging up debt and credit. Mostly debt.
Who provides the "financial services"? Banks. Run by investment bankers. Smart investment bankers. Some who probably have a really good idea how markets work, and just what would happen if a certain sequence of events occurred to a certain company like Bear Stearns.
Bear tanked, and though JP Morgan bought the remains, it was a shotgun wedding with the Fed holding the shotgun in one hand and a Bible in the other. You can bet that the American taxpayer is going to wind up picking up the tab. The same thing is happening to Freddie and Fannie, and you-know-who is going to get stuck with the bill again.
Maybe these catastrophic failures are just accidents-- unintended and unforeseen. Or maybe not. I don't know, but I think it's worth asking, "Cui bono?"
If not, go check it out. It's not just a rundown of what happened to Bear Stearns. It makes you wonder-- What if it was intentional? What if Bear imploded because someone(s) wanted it to implode? Why would someone want to take down Bear?
I've been thinking a lot about the markets recently. Oil up, dollar down, inflation up, housing prices down, foreclosures up, stock market down. It seems more amplified now than ever before in my lifetime (and I remember the 70's oil shortage). It's all connected, thanks to the efficiency of computers. Think you understand how it all works? Read this then come back and tell me you still think you understand.
Most people believe that the markets are too efficient to be gamed or manipulated; that it's impossible to time it or consistently better the returns without running afoul of insider trading laws. It's all just risk and reward.
But over the last 20 years a whole class of professionals has sprung up-- investment bankers. By all accounts the sharp ones make obscene amounts of money. They're the ones who dreamed up the Collateralized Debt Objects that wrapped risky mortgages in what appeared to be low-risk, high-return investments. Nobody understands these things. Maybe not even the people who created them.
According to Bad Money, our GDP is now made up in significant part (20%) by "financial services." It's the single largest sector of the private economy. These things aren't real. You can't see them or touch them. They're just ways of packaging up debt and credit. Mostly debt.
Who provides the "financial services"? Banks. Run by investment bankers. Smart investment bankers. Some who probably have a really good idea how markets work, and just what would happen if a certain sequence of events occurred to a certain company like Bear Stearns.
Bear tanked, and though JP Morgan bought the remains, it was a shotgun wedding with the Fed holding the shotgun in one hand and a Bible in the other. You can bet that the American taxpayer is going to wind up picking up the tab. The same thing is happening to Freddie and Fannie, and you-know-who is going to get stuck with the bill again.
Maybe these catastrophic failures are just accidents-- unintended and unforeseen. Or maybe not. I don't know, but I think it's worth asking, "Cui bono?"
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Two movies that surprised me
My frist two rentals from Netflix were The Kingdom and 28 Days Later. I won't summarize the plots here because you can just go to imdb or Rotten Tomatoes and take care of that. But I will say that they were both very good movies. Surprisingly so.
I'd seen trailers for The Kingdom back when it was in theaters, but even though the idea of seeing Jennifer Garner shoot it out with terrorists was intriguing, I never bothered to go see it. Netflix featured it prominently in its custom recommendations for me (good on you, Netflix), so I picket it up. I was expecting an action/intrigue type of thing but instead found myself watching a smart "buddy film" with characters I cared about and a story arc that not only moved me but made me think.
28 Days Later also made me think. I was expecting a mindless zombie flick (which I enjoy for reasons I don't even understand, myself). But what I got there was a visually mind-blowing film with good acting, interesting characters going through multiple arcs, and a suprising and satisfying plot twist. I watched the film, then I stayed up late to watch it again with commentary from the director and the writer. Good stuff!
Too bad 28 Weeks Later wasn't nearly as good in comparison.
I'd seen trailers for The Kingdom back when it was in theaters, but even though the idea of seeing Jennifer Garner shoot it out with terrorists was intriguing, I never bothered to go see it. Netflix featured it prominently in its custom recommendations for me (good on you, Netflix), so I picket it up. I was expecting an action/intrigue type of thing but instead found myself watching a smart "buddy film" with characters I cared about and a story arc that not only moved me but made me think.
28 Days Later also made me think. I was expecting a mindless zombie flick (which I enjoy for reasons I don't even understand, myself). But what I got there was a visually mind-blowing film with good acting, interesting characters going through multiple arcs, and a suprising and satisfying plot twist. I watched the film, then I stayed up late to watch it again with commentary from the director and the writer. Good stuff!
Too bad 28 Weeks Later wasn't nearly as good in comparison.
Freedom from Cable TV
I recently cancelled my cable TV subscription. Here's why:
- After seeing the quality Michael was getting at his house via an HDTV antenna, I pulled the trigger. I bought a small antenna from AntennasDirect and set it up in a window in the TV room. I didn't even have to mount it on the roof. I get the big networks as well as PBS is lovely HD. After paying for TV for decades, it's hard to believe I can get this stuff for free.
- Technology has finally reached the point where I can get the shows I want a-la-carte through distribution means other than cable TV. The only TV shows we care about are Battlestar Galactica (which is in its last season) and House, and even House we could do without. We also like to get PBS shows for the kids. Even so, I'm usually open to checking out something new and good, and I don't mind being a season or two or three behind. With complete seasons of TV shows like Stargate, Sopranos, etc. all on DVD I still have access to the shows even though I don't get the cable networks.
- There's a neat (but still beta-quality) little app out there that lets me stream Netflix shows directly to my Xbox 360. This was a key feature for me because it opened up the whole a-la-carte TV thing without requiring me to pay for each episode individually. I'm also in a phase where I'm checking out movies from 5 - 10 years ago, which matches the "Watch Now" selection pretty well.
It's a small thing, but boy does it feel good to kiss those absurdely high-priced Comcast bills goodbye.
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