Insurance

At lunch yesterday, Allan pointed out a flaw in the logic of the "Global Warming" video I posted in my blog a few weeks ago. Basically, he pointed out, the argument goes:

If we do nothing about (insert big risky thing here), then something terrible could happen. Therefore we should do something about it rather than sit back and wait for the worst.

Sound familiar? It should. It's your insurance salesman's bread and butter. In the case of the video, the crisis is global warming. However, the case could be made for an asteroid colliding with earth, global cooling (anyone remember the 70's?), or even a fire in your home. Effectively we're being asked to buy insurance against global warming.

There's no problem with that, per se. I'm insured up to my ears against things that seem reasonably risky (car, fire, quake, life, disability, health, liability). But the interesting point that Allan made (and that I failed to see until he pointed it out) is that the argument made in the video can be reduced to "buy insurance!"

And that's not enough. We should all spend our money wisely, so when someone says "buy insurance" it's worthwhile to ask why.

Allow me to illustrate:

Global warming is a grave and gathering threat to life as we know it. We have done the research. We know that carbon emissions are directly linked to the increase in temperatures that have resulted in massive changes in the environment. Polar ice caps melting. Sea levels rising. Mass starvation. We must act and we must do it now. We do not want the incontrovertible proof of man's environmental impact to come in the form of the extinction of our species.

If you're a Liberal like me, you read that and say, "right on!" Now try this on:

Saddam Hussein is a grave and gathering threat to freedom as we know it. We have done the research. We know that Saddam is directly linked to al qaeda and has been trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction. We must act and we must do it now. We must attack Iraq in order to prevent the terrorists from attacking us. We do not want the smoking gun to come in the form of a mushroom cloud.

Doesn't feel quite as convincing, does it?

As noted by many, there's still some room out there for interpretation about the "real" risk of climate change (or as another friend puts it, whether climate change is even real). We don't know enough about what's going to happen to the planet as a result of our misuse. So until there's enough proof/consensus/political will-- whatever you want to call it-- that global warming is a real threat, there's room for debate about what, if anything to do about it.

Don't misunderstand. I do believe global warming is a real threat. I don't understand why skeptics don't see it, but I respect their right to differ. I just hope that enough skeptics can be swayed by facts. Unfortunately, that is something of which I am quite skeptical, myself.

Well, when you put it that way...

Yesterday, I was asked to take a Microsoft summer intern candidate from Dartmouth out to dinner. I have fond memories of my time at Dartmouth and I've always been one to perpetuate the strength of the alumni network, so I gladly accepted.

I took John (not his real name) to McCormick & Schmick's in Bellevue to sample some representative Northwest fare. Unfortunately, what we ended up sampling was the insane crowds that coalesce around Bellevue Square this time of year. One of the hostesses politely informed us that the wait for a party of two was somewhere around an hour and might she recommend Manzana as an alternate just down the street. "They have a much larger dining room," she explained.

I've waited for an hour or more to get a table before, and I've been turned away before, but I've never been told by the hostess of one restaurant that I might want to try another one nearby. In fact, in all of my restaurant experience it has been as if the restaurant I'm standing in is the only restaurant within ten thousand miles of my current location:

Me: Hmmm... an hour wait? Can you recommend somewhere else we can go for (sushisteakfishetc)?

Host/Hostess: Hmmmm...... no. No, I can't think of anything. Sorry. So, what name shall I put down?

I'd actually been to Manzana before and thought it was pretty good. I figured that since John was under 21 we could swing three courses without blowing the $100 expense cap I'd been given. We walked into Manzana and were seated right away at a comfortable booth adjacent to the kitchen.

John seemed like a smart kid who, as expected, was still not entirely sure what he wanted to do with his life. I grilled him for information about the current state of the Computer Science program at Dartmouth (CS 5, 15, and 18 are still the first year staples of the program). They still have the fundamentals covered like data structures and algorithms, linear math, operating systems. They've fully separated from the Math department, too. No tears shed about that.

Though I went into this with the intent not to be the "old fart alum" who waxes poetic about Dartmouth of yesteryear and doles out sage advice about how to live a meaningful life, I did find myself sharing snippets of stories of what I've done since I graduated from college-- working at Apple, Amazon.com, Microsoft, starting my own company, spending a year trying to break into Hollywood, working in a restaurant kitchen, hanging out on the set of Sheena, living in OC, Bay Area, and Seattle, sailing the Med, travelling to Turkey and Cyprus, shaking hands with the dictator of a rogue nation...

At one point, John said, "Wow. You've really lived an interesting life." (or words to that effect).

To be honest, I wouldn't have characterized my life as particularly interesting. I mean, I wouldn't have called it boring but it's not like I've travelled the world, cured cancer, been a Hollywood mogul, or lived in Bora Bora. But John made me stop and think about it. As I did I started to feel pretty good about The Story So Far. I hope I keep it that way as I make my way through Life's Second Act.

We had a good time (I think) and I didn't bore him too much (I think). It was great for me to get a glimpse of how the old alma mater is doing (pretty well, it seems). I hope John got something out of it, too.